Most of the Thanksgiving shopping list costs more this year, but pie crust is moving the other way. Pie crust prices fell 2 percent in the 52 weeks ending Sept. 5, 2026, compared with a year earlier, according to scan data from market research firm NIQ.
The same data shows cranberry sauce up 15 percent and turkey breast up 12 percent, so the cheaper crust is the exception on a list where the side dishes and centerpiece are climbing. Here is how the major items stack up, and what NIQ’s survey says shoppers plan to do about it.
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Pie Crust Is the One Item Getting Cheaper
NIQ’s figures, reported by The Shelby Report on Oct. 21, compare prices over the 52 weeks ending Sept. 5 with the prior year. Of the holiday staples NIQ tracked, pie crust was the only one listed with a price decline, at 2 percent.
That makes the crust the easiest place on the list to buy without second-guessing. A shortcrust pastry is built from flour, fat and a little ice water, with roughly twice as much flour as fat by weight, so butter or shortening makes up a large share of what goes into it. The USDA’s Economic Research Service, in its Oct. 23 food price outlook, said it expects fats and oils prices to decline in 2026 compared with 2025.
For home bakers, the dip is a reason to stock up on refrigerated or frozen crusts and to plan the dessert table around them. Pumpkin, pecan and apple are the regulars on this list of pies that show up on Thanksgiving tables across America, and every one of them starts with a crust.
Cranberry Sauce and Turkey Breast Rose the Most
On the other end of the list, cranberry sauce posted the steepest increase NIQ reported, at 15 percent. Turkey breast followed at 12 percent.
Cranberry sauce has been tied to the turkey for a long time. Amelia Simmons’s 1796 cookbook “American Cookery” is the first known mention of it as a companion to turkey, and canned cranberry sauce reached the market in 1941, the same year the cooperative later known as Ocean Spray first marketed it nationally, according to Wikipedia’s cranberry sauce entry. With cranberry sauce up 15 percent, a homemade batch from fresh berries, sugar and water is one way to compare costs before reaching for the can.
For turkey breast, the 12 percent jump is worth weighing against a whole bird for larger gatherings. Hosts with a small oven can also move side dishes to countertop appliances, as laid out in this comparison of the COSORI and Ninja air fryers and Ninja Flip toaster oven. Planning matters as much as price, and this rundown of costly Thanksgiving hosting mistakes covers traps from inviting more guests than the budget allows to cooking an unfamiliar recipe.
Juice, Green Beans and Soft Drinks Rose More Modestly
The middle of the list moved less. Fruit juice was up 6 percent, NIQ found. Green beans, carrots, soft drinks, dinner sausage and appetizers each rose 4 percent.
Those 4 percent items are where small swaps add up. Frozen or canned green beans, a bag of whole carrots instead of pre-cut sticks, and a 2-liter bottle in place of individual cans are all ways to keep the side dishes and drinks in check. The wider USDA forecast backs up the mixed picture: the Economic Research Service projects food-at-home prices to rise 2.3 percent in 2026, with fresh vegetables forecast up 5.8 percent and sugar and sweets up 6.5 percent.
Guests flying in for the holiday are watching costs too, and travelers can trim the trip with tips on how to skip the checked-bag fee this Thanksgiving. For visitors from abroad, the whole meal can be a puzzle, which is why the holiday turns up on this list of odd American traditions that confuse the rest of the world.
How Shoppers Plan to Handle the Higher Prices
NIQ’s Thanksgiving ’26 survey of 2,017 respondents found 77 percent of hosts and guests are adjusting their shopping lists because of food prices. The most common plan was searching for deals, at 36 percent, followed by using what is already on hand, at 32 percent.
Other tactics were further down the list. Thirty-one percent said they will plan menus carefully, 21 percent will cut nonessentials or sides, and 21 percent will buy lower-cost brands or cuts. Fifteen percent plan to buy smaller quantities, and 12 percent will serve smaller portions.
Spending expectations split the same way. Forty-seven percent expect to spend more than last year, 24 percent expect to spend the same and 19 percent expect to spend less, according to NIQ. Seventy-five percent of participants said they already know where they would cut, with decorations, alcohol and specialty foods facing the most scrutiny while fresh produce, beverages and the main protein are more protected.
Store Brands Are Getting a Bigger Share of the Cart
The biggest shift may be in which labels land in the cart. Forty-six percent of respondents plan to buy more store brands than last year, while 46 percent expect no change and 8 percent plan to buy fewer, NIQ found.
A store brand, or private label, is owned by the retailer and usually sold at a lower price than the name-brand version. Chris Costagli, NIQ’s vice president of thought leadership and food and beverage insights lead, said consumers “didn’t suddenly discover store brands this Thanksgiving,” and that the move toward private label is likely to stick.
For the pie, that points to an easy buy: a store-brand crust, already on the one line of the list that is getting cheaper, leaves more room in the budget for the 15 percent cranberry sauce and the 12 percent turkey breast.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Evan-Amos – CC BY-SA 3.0/Wikimedia Commons
