Coffee is one of the grocery items that has not gotten the memo on cooling prices. The federal Consumer Price Index shows coffee up 7.1% over the 12 months ending in September 2026, while eggs and butter have dropped.
Over a longer stretch the gap is wider. Coffee prices last month were 44% higher than two years earlier, according to WUNC, and tariffs and bad weather in growing regions have both played a part.
What the Federal Numbers Show
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release for September 2026, coffee was up 7.1% from a year earlier. Roasted coffee rose 7.2% and instant coffee rose 6.8%.
The same release shows how uneven grocery inflation has become. Food overall was up 2.5% over the year and food at home rose 1.8%. Beef and veal were up 3.5%, while butter was down 10.3% and eggs were down 20.6%.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service, in its Food Price Outlook updated October 23, says retail coffee prices were 7.1% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025. It forecasts nonalcoholic beverage prices to rise 4.4% in 2026, within a range of 3.9% to 4.9%.
The same outlook expects egg prices to fall 29.3% in 2026 and beef and veal prices to rise 8.7%. For anyone buying eggs now, the 3-digit number on an egg carton shows the day of the year the eggs were packed. Shoppers who want help sorting out which items are drifting up or down can look at Frenzhub’s piece on things that are actually getting cheaper.
The 44% Two-Year Climb
The longer view comes from WUNC, which reported that coffee prices last month were 44% higher than two years earlier. Its report on five grocery items said Brazil supplies 35% of the global coffee supply, and that tariffs on Brazilian coffee hit American drinkers hard.
That tariff story has a twist. WUNC reported that last fall the administration scrapped tariffs on some foreign goods, including coffee. With those tariffs gone, the weather pressure WUNC describes is the main force it points to behind current prices.
The same article noted that the United States imports more than 99% of the coffee it consumes. With almost none grown domestically, any disruption abroad moves quickly to American stores. Households that keep an eye on pantry costs may also like Frenzhub’s list of outrageously expensive products Americans are overpaying for.
Coffee drinkers who are already feeling the pinch have a few lighter reads. A feature on coffee mugs worth taking home from a thrift store covers a low-cost way to upgrade a morning cup, and Frenzhub’s foods to never buy at Walmart covers another side of grocery shopping.
How Weather in Growing Regions Cut Harvests
WUNC said drought and heavy rainfall in Brazil, Vietnam and Costa Rica have reduced bean yields. It added that severe weather and climate change are disrupting harvests, and that excessive moisture on farms can cause mold and disease.
Wikipedia’s coffee entry places production in more than 70 countries in the “bean belt” between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It says Brazil produced 31% of the world’s green coffee in 2023, with about 11 million tonnes produced worldwide, and that Vietnam was the second-largest producer. Arabica makes up about three-quarters of cultivated coffee.
Wikipedia’s entry on coffee production explains why supply responds slowly. A coffee plant usually flowers three to four years after planting, and the first useful harvest is possible around five years after planting. A bad season cannot be fixed by planting more the next spring.
Eggs and Butter Fall While Coffee Stays High
WUNC reported that an average dozen eggs hit a record $6.23 in March of last year and fell to a typical $2.27 last month. It said avian flu is the main driver of egg price swings, and that tariffs also raised packaging costs, including cardboard cartons.
Butter averaged $3.96 a pound in September, down 17.3% from last year, according to the same report, which said American butter production is booming and has created an oversupply. Ground beef reached $6.79 a pound, up 85% from a decade earlier.
The reports describe no similar glut for coffee, which leaves daily drinkers exposed. Wikipedia’s coffee entry cites an April 2024 National Coffee Association survey finding that 67% of American adults drank coffee in the past day, a 20-year high. Fewer than half did in 2004.
What a Higher Coffee Bill Means at the Register
Cal Poly San Luis Obispo agribusiness professor Ricky Volpe told WUNC that inflation builds on already high prices, saying “the damage had been done.” The remark was about grocery prices in general, and it fits coffee, which has climbed while other items have cooled.
Wikipedia adds some context on how big the habit is. Its coffee entry says the United States was already the largest coffee consumer in the world by 1860 and consumed around half of the world’s coffee by 1920. Green, unroasted coffee is traded as an agricultural commodity, with arabica futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
For households, the practical effect is a steady rise at the shelf rather than one big jump. A 7.1% yearly increase means a bag that cost $10 a year ago would run about $10.71 now, if it tracked the average. Those are illustrations, not figures from any one retailer.
Shoppers who want to cut the cost can compare store brands and unit prices on the shelf tag.
The federal data and the USDA outlook both show uneven grocery prices. Coffee is in the group that is still rising, while eggs and butter have eased. Whether coffee follows depends on harvests that will not be known for months.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Toni Cuenca – CC0/Wikimedia Commons
