Grocery receipts in 2026 tell two different stories at once: one from the egg aisle, another from the meat counter. A new government forecast puts numbers on both, and the gap between them is wide.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts that egg prices will fall 29.3% in 2026 compared with 2025, a drop of nearly 30%, with a forecast range of 31.6% down to 26.7% down. Beef and veal move the other way. The agency’s October outlook, last updated Oct. 23, 2026, forecasts beef and veal prices rising 8.7% for the year, with a range of 7.4% to 10.1%.
Eggs Head Down After Three Rough Years
The egg decline follows a long climb. According to the ERS Food Price Outlook, retail egg prices rose 32.2% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023, 8.5% in 2024 and 21.9% in 2025. The agency ties those increases to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza that began in 2022 and cut the number of egg-laying hens, as Wikipedia’s overview of the outbreak also describes.
Supply now looks better. ERS says USDA projects higher egg production in 2026 than in 2025, with fewer new flock detections in the first quarter of 2026 than a year earlier, and enough replacement pullets to cover normal turnover and unexpected losses. Shoppers are already seeing part of the shift: egg prices in September 2026 were 20.6% lower than in September 2025, even though they rose 1.0% from August. More background on the market sits in the ERS poultry and egg market outlook.
For anyone building a holiday baking list, lower egg prices change the math on pies, custards and casseroles. Frenz Hub’s roundup of things that are actually getting cheaper is a reminder that not every aisle moves in the same direction.
Beef Keeps Climbing on Tighter Supply
ERS points to production as the reason. Federally inspected beef production has been lower in most months of 2026 than in the same months of 2025, and the agency expects it to stay below year-ago levels through the end of the year. The ERS livestock and meat domestic data page tracks those monthly production figures, and the cattle cycle, described on Wikipedia, explains why herd size swings take years to reverse.
The monthly picture is less steady than the annual one. Beef and veal prices fell 1.3% from August to September 2026, yet they were still 3.5% higher than in September 2025. A single soft month does not erase a forecast that depends on the whole year averaging out above 2025. Frenz Hub’s collection of wallet-friendly life hacks offers other ways to offset a pricier cart.
Menus feel the squeeze too, since ERS forecasts food away from home up 3.5% in 2026. A separate craftingyourhome.com story about a diner who said a restaurant added an 18% gratuity to a $300 dinner for five shows how quickly a dining budget can slip.
Sweets, Coffee and Produce Pull the Other Way
Several categories are forecast to grow faster than their 20-year averages. ERS projects fresh vegetables up 5.8% and sugar and sweets up 6.5% in 2026, with candy and chewing gum, a group that includes most chocolate candy, driving the sweets increase. Fresh fruit is forecast up 2.9%. Nonalcoholic beverages are forecast up 4.4%, and retail coffee prices were 7.1% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier.
Shoppers who stock up on vegetables when prices dip can stretch a budget, and Frenz Hub’s guide to freezing fresh green beans to enjoy all year shows one way to hold onto a seasonal bargain. Shoppers who plan meals around the week’s best price, a habit a craftingyourhome.com post explores in its look at people who never go shopping without a written list, can also shift a beef night toward chicken or pork without much price pain.
The Aisles in the Middle
Most other proteins sit close to flat. ERS forecasts pork up 1.0% and poultry up 1.2% in 2026, both slower than their 20-year averages. Dairy products are forecast to slip 0.4%, with a range of a 0.8% drop to a 0.1% rise, as USDA expects milk production to grow on a larger dairy herd and higher output per cow. The agency says that could press down on prices for some key dairy products, including cheese.
Taken together, the forecast shows a grocery cart where eggs and dairy give a little back while beef takes more, so a roast or steak night costs more while a custard or quiche costs less.
What the Forecast Does and Does Not Promise
ERS describes its Food Price Outlook as statistical models fitted to recent trends, and it focuses on the midpoint of each range. The forecasts compare calendar-year average prices, so the 29.3% egg decline is an annual figure, not a promise that the carton on the shelf next week will cost nearly 30% less than last week’s.
The wider picture is modest. Food prices overall are forecast to rise 2.8% in 2026, grocery-store food 2.3% and restaurant food 3.5%. September 2026 grocery prices were 1.8% above September 2025, while food away from home was 3.5% higher. Restaurant bills are climbing faster than the checkout line.
Over a longer stretch, ERS says prices for all food rose 3.0% per year on average from 2006 through 2025, so 2.8% in 2026 sits just under that pace. The agency’s 2027 forecast is 1.7% for all food, but its range runs from a 2.5% drop to a 6.2% rise, a reminder of how much uncertainty surrounds a year that has not started yet.
The outlook gets revised as new price data arrives, so the numbers can move. For now, the USDA’s picture for 2026 is clear: eggs are the standout bargain, beef is the standout expense, and most everything else lands in between.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Nielsoncaetanosalmeron – CC BY 4.0/Wikimedia Commons
