U.S. electricity use is now forecast to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, adding fresh pressure to household power bills already rising across much of the country, the Energy Information Administration said in its June 9 outlook.
The latest update places electricity costs back at the center of the national affordability debate. The EIA forecasts record power use as artificial intelligence data centers, industrial growth, and broader electrification increase demand across the grid.
The agency projected U.S. power consumption will rise from 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,271 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026. It expects demand to climb again to 4,397 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027.
The forecast aligns with federal data showing electricity prices are already rising. The EIA’s March 2026 electricity update showed that the national average revenue per kilowatt-hour rose 7.2% from March 2025. Residential average revenue rose 10.2% over the same period.
March Data Shows Broad Price Increases
The EIA reported higher average revenues across every major electricity customer group in March. Residential customers paid an average of 18.83 cents per kilowatt-hour, up from a year earlier.
Commercial customers paid 13.92 cents per kilowatt-hour, while industrial customers paid 8.58 cents per kilowatt-hour. The transportation sector saw the largest percentage jump, though it remains a much smaller part of total power sales.
The increases were widespread. Forty-two states and Washington, D.C., saw average revenue per kilowatt-hour rise from March 2025. Maryland posted the largest percentage increase, followed by Ohio and Washington, D.C.
The same federal update showed California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts had the highest average revenues in the contiguous United States. North Dakota, New Mexico, and Oklahoma had the lowest.
AI Data Centers Add New Pressure
The sharpest new pressure is coming from commercial electricity demand. The EIA said commercial power use is expected to surpass residential demand in 2026 for the first time on record.
That change is tied to the rapid growth of data centers used for artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure. These facilities can use large amounts of electricity around the clock.
The issue has already moved into politics. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published June 11 found that 77% of respondents worried AI-driven data centers could make electricity more expensive. The poll also found 57% would oppose a data center being built in their community.
Reuters reported growing public concern as developers pursue new projects across the country. Cleanview, a research firm tracking the sector, counted 710 operating U.S. data centers and 1,062 planned projects.
PJM Faces Shortage Warnings
The data center boom is especially visible in PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator. PJM serves all or parts of 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states and Washington, D.C.
PJM has warned of a possible electricity shortfall as early as 2027. Reuters reported in May that the grid operator was weighing market changes after capacity prices spiked and political pressure grew.
Those capacity prices help secure power for peak-demand days. When prices rise, the cost can be reflected in power bills for homes and small businesses.
PJM outlined possible market reforms that could rely more on long-term power deals. The operator said the choices involve real trade-offs for consumers, suppliers, and states.
Gas Still Drives Volatility
Natural gas remains a major factor behind electricity costs. The EIA said natural gas will still supply about 40% of U.S. power generation in 2026 and 2027.
That leaves many states exposed when gas prices or gas demand rise. Gas-fired power plants often set electricity prices during key hours, especially when demand is high.
New England faces one of the clearest risks. Massachusetts and nearby states rely heavily on gas amid pipeline constraints and winter demand. Those conditions can push prices higher during cold periods.
California also remains exposed to gas costs despite major growth in solar and battery storage. Gas plants still help meet demand during evening hours, heat waves, and reliability events.
Coal Costs Hit Some States
Coal is also adding pressure in several states. Many older coal plants are costly to maintain, repair, and operate.
Energy Innovation’s May 29 analysis found that electricity bills are rising due to several factors, including gas dependence, coal plant costs, extreme weather, utility spending, and infrastructure needs. The group linked the increases in the bill to state-level energy choices and fuel exposure.
Coal-heavy states face a difficult trade-off. Keeping older plants open can support reliability, but they can also entail expensive fuel, maintenance, and compliance costs.
West Virginia remains one of the most visible examples. The state has long been tied to coal power, but residents have faced steep electricity increases and growing affordability concerns.
Weather Damage Raises Bills
Storms, wildfires, and winter freezes are also being reflected in customer bills. Utilities often seek regulator approval to recover repair and hardening costs after major disasters.
California faces high wildfire-related costs for grid work, vegetation management, and fire prevention. Those expenses can raise utility bills even when they reduce future risk.
Florida, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, and the Carolinas face similar pressure from hurricanes and severe storms. Repairs to poles, wires, substations, and damaged grid equipment can take years to pay off.
These costs often appear long after the disaster leaves the headlines. Customers can continue paying through storm-recovery charges and approved utility rate increases.
Clean Energy Debate Intensifies
Energy Innovation said states that have invested more in clean energy and efficiency have generally seen less volatility than states that are more dependent on fossil fuels.
Wind and solar do not require fuel. That can help shield customers from gas and coal price swings once projects are built and connected to the grid.
The EIA expects renewable generation to grow from about 24% of U.S. power generation in 2025 to 27% in 2027. Coal’s share is forecast to fall from 17% to 15% during the same period.
Natural gas, however, is expected to remain near 40%. That means the U.S. grid will still depend heavily on gas even as renewable generation expands.
State Regulators Face the Next Fight
The next phase of the electric bill fight will play out before state utility commissions, grid operators, and local governments as they review data center projects.
Regulators will decide how much customers pay for storm recovery, new power lines, old power plants, data center demand, and utility investment plans. Those decisions will shape bills long before many households understand what changed.
Large power users are also under new scrutiny. State officials face pressure to ensure data centers and other major customers pay for the infrastructure they require.
For now, the latest federal forecast points in one direction. Demand is rising, residential power prices are up, and the debate over who pays for America’s next grid buildout is already landing on monthly electric bills.
