The National Retail Federation expects holiday shoppers to spend more this year than last. The trade group projects retail sales for November and December will grow 4.2 percent over 2025 and reach about $1.013 trillion.
The forecast, released October 15, comes as many households are watching their budgets closely. It also frames how much Americans may spend on gifts, decorations and holiday meals over the next seven weeks.
.jpg?width=1600)
What the National Retail Federation forecast
According to the NRF press release, holiday sales are projected to rise 4.2 percent over 2025, for a total of about $1.013 trillion. The group defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.
The calculation leaves out automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. That matters for anyone reading the number as a measure of total holiday spending, since a restaurant dinner out is not part of it.
The NRF said the estimate comes from economic modeling that uses consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and prior monthly retail sales releases. The press release does not cite a shopper survey.
How it compares with last year
The NRF said holiday sales in 2025 rose 3.1 percent over 2024, totaling $972 billion. This year’s projected 4.2 percent gain would be 1.1 percentage points faster than that.
The two figures fit together. A 4.2 percent increase on $972 billion works out to roughly $1.013 trillion, which matches the headline total.
The gap between the two years is also a useful check on the forecast itself. A rise of 3.1 percent last year and a projected rise of 4.2 percent this year suggest the federation expects spending to pick up rather than simply hold steady.
The projection also leaves some room for surprises. Prices, weather, gas costs and household confidence can all change before the season ends.
Forecasts are not results. The federation’s own numbers for what shoppers actually spent come later, after the season ends, and they can land above or below the early projection.
Gifts, travel and the home
Holiday spending is not only gifts. Because restaurants are excluded from the NRF total, a holiday meal out sits outside the figure. Travel gear, hosting supplies and decor all show up on the same shopping lists. Readers planning trips can browse 3-piece luggage sets for holiday trips, while those hosting guests may want to compare Keurig and Ninja coffee makers for the season.
A tighter budget can also shape the house itself. A piece on decorating on a budget offers one approach for anyone trying to keep the tree and mantel affordable.
Where the shopping starts
Black Friday falls on November 27 this year, the day after Thanksgiving. The Wikipedia entry on Black Friday traces the term to a November 1951 trade publication and to Philadelphia police, who used it for the crowds and traffic that came with the start of Christmas shopping.
The same entry lists the federation’s own weekend counts from earlier years. In 2019, an estimated 190 million shoppers spent $68.8 billion over the Black Friday weekend, and the 2021 total was $54.2 billion.
Some households start early to spread the cost. One look at people who finish holiday shopping before Thanksgiving considers what that habit says about them. Others lean on gift cards, and a list of gift card mistakes to avoid covers the pitfalls.
What NRF leaders said
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast reflects confidence that “consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets.”
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said consumers “remain the bright spot in the economy.” He added that inflation, gas prices and spending pressure will affect income groups differently.
Those two comments point in the same direction. The federation expects shoppers to keep spending while staying careful with their budgets.
The release also describes caution on the retailer side. It lists higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt as reasons retailers remain careful about hiring.
Seasonal hiring
Hiring is the other half of the holiday story. Stores add staff to handle longer hours, stocking and the surge of customers that arrives once Thanksgiving week begins.
The same release says retailers are expected to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers this year. The NRF put last year’s estimate at 356,000 seasonal jobs, so the middle of this year’s range is close to that figure.
For shoppers, seasonal hiring is one sign of how busy stores expect to be. For job seekers, it is a reminder that the holiday rush creates short-term work.
How to read the number
The National Retail Federation is the largest retail trade group in the world, according to Wikipedia’s description of the organization. It was founded in 1911 as the National Retail Dry Goods Association and is based in Washington, D.C. Its members include department, specialty, discount and online stores, along with grocery chains and chain restaurants.
Government data gives a second reference point. The Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales report for September 2026 showed sales of $745.0 billion, up 0.8 percent from August and up 6.3 percent from September 2025. Those figures are not adjusted for price changes, so part of any increase reflects higher prices rather than more goods sold.
The same caution applies to the holiday forecast. A larger dollar total can mean more purchases, higher prices, or both, and the NRF projection does not separate them.
The USDA Economic Research Service tracks food prices separately. Its latest food price outlook is dated October 23, 2026, with the next update listed for November 24, 2026.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Robloxsupersuperhappyface – CC BY-SA 4.0/Wikimedia Commons
