The Department of Agriculture expects grocery prices to rise 2.3% in 2026 and just 1.0% in 2027, with beef climbing 8.7% this year. The forecasts come from the department’s Economic Research Service, which updated its Food Price Outlook on October 23, 2026, using September consumer and producer price data.
The outlook, published on the agency’s Food Price Outlook page, breaks down where food costs are headed, category by category. Beef, fresh vegetables and sweets are climbing, while eggs and dairy are expected to get cheaper.
The big picture for 2026 and 2027
According to the Economic Research Service’s summary, all food prices are forecast to rise 2.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. Food away from home is expected to rise 3.5% this year and 2.8% next year. Food at home, the grocery-store side of the ledger, is forecast up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027.
The agency stresses that the forecasts are midpoints with ranges. For 2026 groceries, the range runs from 1.9% to 2.7%. For 2027 it is far wider, from a 5.2% decline to a 7.5% increase, which the agency says reflects high uncertainty. The forecasts come entirely from statistical models fitted to recent data trends.
For context, from 2006 to 2025 all food prices rose 3.0% per year on average, according to the same page. Food away from home averaged 3.5% a year and food at home averaged 2.6%. Next year’s grocery forecast is well below that long-run pace.
Beef up 8.7%
Beef and veal are the biggest mover. The Economic Research Service forecasts beef and veal prices up 8.7% in 2026, with a range of 7.4% to 10.1%, which is faster than the 20-year average. By September, retail beef and veal prices were up 3.5% from a year earlier, so the forecast implies a sharper climb ahead.
The agency points to supply. Federally inspected beef production has been lower than in 2025 for most months of 2026, and it expects production to stay below year-ago levels through the end of the year. At the wholesale level, beef is forecast up 8.8%, and farm-level cattle prices are forecast up 5.8%. The department’s cattle and beef overview tracks that supply picture.
Shoppers planning a holiday roast may feel the squeeze. Cooks looking to trim the cost of a feast can browse eight things a big chain does with unsold produce for a look at how grocers manage waste. Others may prefer tips for saving money fast, or things that are actually getting cheaper.
Eggs and dairy getting cheaper
Eggs are forecast to fall 29.3% in 2026, with a range of 26.7% to 31.6% lower. September retail egg prices were already down 20.6% from a year earlier, according to the agency. After a long run of bird flu outbreaks since 2022 reduced laying flocks, production is projected to rise over 2025, and there were fewer detections in early 2026 than in early 2025. Replacement hens are sufficient to cover flock turnover and losses.
When prices swing, a cushion helps, and a guide to building an emergency fund covers the basics of setting money aside.
Dairy products are forecast down 0.4% for the year. The department projects higher milk production from herd growth and more output per cow, which is expected to push down prices for some products, such as cheese. Farm-level milk prices are forecast down 10.5%.
Egg shoppers who want to check freshness can read how the three-digit number on a carton shows the pack date. The department’s poultry and eggs overview adds more on the egg market.
Produce, sweets and drinks
Not every aisle is cooling off. The outlook has fresh vegetables up 5.8% in 2026 and fresh fruits up 2.9%. Sugar and sweets are forecast up 6.5%, driven mainly by candy and chewing gum, and nonalcoholic beverages are forecast up 4.4%. Retail coffee prices were 7.1% higher in September than a year earlier.
Wheat is another early-warning signal. A projected large decline in American wheat output, reported in June, is pushing farm-level wheat prices higher. That is a producer-level price, and the agency notes that producer prices lead consumer prices, so they hint at future retail trends.
Meat is more subdued outside beef. Pork is forecast up 1.0% and poultry up 1.2%, both slower than their 20-year averages.
Restaurants stay pricey
Eating out is not getting cheaper. Food away from home was up 3.5% over the 12 months ending in September and is forecast to rise 3.5% for all of 2026, with a narrow range of 3.4% to 3.7%. For 2027 the forecast is 2.8%.
That keeps restaurant prices climbing faster than groceries, a pattern also visible in the September consumer price data the forecasts rest on. That data put the all-items index up 3.7% over the year, with food at home up 1.8%.
Households weighing the numbers may find that cooking at home keeps costs lower, though not equally for every item.
How to read a forecast
A forecast is not a promise. The Economic Research Service, which has its own Wikipedia entry, builds its numbers from models and then publishes ranges to show how far prices could swing. The outlook is revised as new price data arrives, so the figures can move. Background on how such price measures work is available in Wikipedia’s consumer price index entry.
The takeaway for the grocery cart is a mixed one. Eggs and dairy are expected to ease, while beef, vegetables and sweets are rising. Overall grocery inflation looks mild next year, but the wide range around the 1.0% forecast is a reminder that conditions can change.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Gnangcomapp – CC BY-SA 4.0/Wikimedia Commons
