Ali Furman, a consumer markets industry leader at PwC, told “Good Morning America” that Thanksgiving is expected to cost the average American family about $90 versus just $88 last year. The consulting firm gave the program an exclusive look at its holiday food forecast. 6abc in Philadelphia reported the numbers on October 16, 2026.
Inside that $2 gap, items move in opposite directions. PwC expects turkey to cost nearly 8 percent more than last year, while butter is down 10 percent. Thanksgiving falls on November 26 this year.
The Forecast: About $90 Versus $88
PwC’s figure is for the average American family’s Thanksgiving dinner, and it is a forecast rather than a receipt. The difference between $88 and $90 is small next to the swings on individual items, which is where the detail sits. Frenz Hub has a post titled 14 Strange Thanksgiving Traditions That Everyone Pretends Aren’t Weird.
The report ties the higher prices to a larger economic backdrop. ABC’s story says inflation rose to a four-month high in September. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, in its Food Price Outlook, says the Consumer Price Index for all food was 2.5 percent higher in September 2026 than in September 2025, and food bought for eating at home was 1.8 percent higher. The all-items index, a measure of economy-wide inflation, was up 3.7 percent from a year earlier.
Turkey and Cranberries Lead the Increases
PwC said turkey will cost Americans nearly 8 percent more than last year. Cranberries are expected to rise nearly 15 percent, which PwC attributes to a smaller harvest and higher production costs. Wikipedia notes that turkey is traditionally the main course of Thanksgiving dinner in the United States and Canada, so the line matters to nearly every table.
The cranberry increase follows a crop with a specific home. In 2021, the United States harvested 360,000 metric tons of cranberries, with Wisconsin as the largest producer at 59 percent of the total, according to Wikipedia’s cranberry entry. Frenz Hub has a post titled Who Said Inflation Had to Ruin Everything? 12 Things That Are Actually Getting Cheaper!.
Butter and Cream Move the Other Way
“But there’s some bright spots,” Furman said. “Butter is down 10 percent and cream is down 6 percent. So that will help offset some of those increases.” Both are staples of mashed potatoes, rolls and the whipped cream on the pie. CraftingYourHome.com has a list of 9 pies that show up on Thanksgiving tables across America.
The USDA’s forecast points the same direction for dairy. Prices for eggs, dairy products, and fats and oils are forecast to decline in 2026 compared with 2025, according to the Economic Research Service. Wikipedia describes butter as a dairy product made from the fat and protein components of churned cream. CraftingYourHome.com has a post on two almanacs that split on Thanksgiving Day 2026 weather.
A Second Measure From NIQ
PwC is not the only forecaster, and the numbers differ because the measures differ. The Shelby Report, a grocery industry publication, reported on October 21 that NielsenIQ found cranberry sauce prices up 15 percent and turkey breast up 12 percent in the 52 weeks ending September 5 compared with a year earlier. Fruit juice was up 6 percent, and green beans, carrots, soft drinks, dinner sausage and appetizers each rose 4 percent. Pie crust was down 2 percent. The report also cited consumer-goods inflation of 2.6 percent in August and overall inflation of 3.4 percent. Chris Costagli, NIQ’s vice president of thought leadership, said double-digit increases on staples like cranberry sauce or turkey breast often push shoppers to become more flexible, whether that means switching brands or shopping promotions.
That is a look backward at what shoppers paid, while PwC is a look ahead at a Thanksgiving basket. NIQ’s turkey breast figure and PwC’s turkey figure should not be read as the same measurement. Frenz Hub’s Free Up the Oven This Thanksgiving is a Thanksgiving kitchen post.
What Experts Recommend About Timing
According to the ABC report, experts recommend preparing earlier and shopping for essentials such as shelf-stable ingredients that go on sale ahead of time. Furman added that “families are managing their budgets very closely this year” and that more shoppers are using AI to help compare prices.
The Economic Research Service’s October forecast, for its part, puts the annual increase for all food at 2.8 percent in 2026 and 1.7 percent in 2027, with a forecast interval of 2.6 to 3.1 percent for this year. It describes the forecasts as based on statistical models fitted to recent trends.
A Light Reality Check
A $90 average hides a wide range of tables, and PwC’s figure is for an average family, not a specific one. The forecast was reported on October 16, and what a given store charges will vary. Still, the pattern across PwC, NIQ and the USDA is consistent: turkey and cranberries are higher, while dairy is lower. For the week of November 26, that is the shape of the price list. The national holiday is old by comparison, and Wikipedia dates the modern national celebration to 1863, when Abraham Lincoln proclaimed a national day of Thanksgiving.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Mark Miller – CC BY-SA 4.0/Wikimedia Commons
