When Thanksgiving budgets get tight this year, the centerpiece and the wine are more likely to go than the turkey. NIQ found that 75 percent of people taking part in Thanksgiving already know where they would cut spending if needed, and decorations, alcohol and specialty foods face greater scrutiny than the rest of the list.
The items shoppers protect are the ones that make the meal: fresh produce, beverages and the main protein. The findings come from NIQ’s Thanksgiving ’26 survey of 2,017 respondents, released in October, which found that food prices are changing how 77 percent of hosts and guests build their shopping lists.
Where Families Draw the Line
The ranking of what to keep and what to trim tracks closely with what makes a Thanksgiving feel like Thanksgiving. According to The Shelby Report’s coverage of the NIQ survey, decorations, alcohol and specialty foods face greater scrutiny when shoppers look for places to cut, while fresh produce, beverages and the main protein stay more protected. That protected core matches the holiday itself: Thanksgiving dinner is generally centered on a large roasted turkey, and Thanksgiving is the largest eating event in the United States as measured by retail sales of food and beverages, according to Wikipedia.
“Consumers want the same Thanksgiving they’ve always wanted: a table full of favorite foods, enough leftovers for the next day and a memorable experience with family and friends. The difference is that they’re working harder to make that happen,” said Chris Costagli, vice president of thought leadership and food and beverage insights lead at NIQ.
Decorations are an easy place to save without changing the menu. These ideas for decorating a home on a budget and this list of home decor essentials to buy at the thrift store cover lower-cost ways to dress up a table. For hosts who still want a full drinks spread without the bar tab, this comparison of the Keurig K-Express and Ninja Fresh Brew for holiday guests weighs coffee for a crowd.
Alcohol was already on the cut list last year. In its 2025 Thanksgiving analysis, NIQ found that among households looking to save money, 25 percent planned to reduce or eliminate alcohol from their celebrations, while staples such as turkey and potatoes were considered non-negotiable.
How Shoppers Plan to Trim
Cutting extras is only one tactic. Because of food and beverage prices, 36 percent of people hosting or attending a Thanksgiving meal will search for deals, 32 percent will use what they have on hand and 31 percent will plan their menus with care, NIQ found. Another 21 percent will cut non-essentials or sides, and 21 percent will use lower-cost brands or cuts.
Portion and package size are moving in both directions. Fifteen percent will buy smaller quantities, while 14 percent will buy larger or bulk sizes, and 12 percent will serve smaller portions.
Store brands are a big part of the plan. Forty-six percent of respondents plan to buy more store brands than last year, 46 percent expect no change and 8 percent plan to buy fewer. Costagli said side dishes, baking ingredients, canned vegetables, cranberry sauce, dairy and pantry staples are natural fits for private label because they are often bought in larger quantities and play a supporting role in the meal.
Planning ahead is part of the same mindset, as this look at what it says about people who finish holiday shopping before Thanksgiving suggests. For families, the traditions often matter more than the price tags, as these things grandparents do that make the holidays feel special show.
The Prices Behind the Pressure
Several holiday staples cost more than a year ago. In the 52 weeks ending Sept. 5, cranberry sauce prices rose 15 percent and turkey breast rose 12 percent, according to NIQ. Fruit juice was up 6 percent, and green beans, carrots, soft drinks, dinner sausage and appetizers each rose 4 percent. Pie crust was down 2 percent.
“When consumers encounter double-digit price increases on staples like cranberry sauce or turkey breast, they’re often encouraged to become more flexible, whether that’s switching brands, purchasing private label alternatives, shopping promotions or reallocating spending elsewhere in the basket,” Costagli said. NIQ also noted that consumer packaged goods inflation reached 2.6 percent in August, overall inflation climbed to 3.4 percent on a surge in gas prices, and consumer confidence was down 8.4 points from a year earlier.
The broader picture is milder but still rising. The USDA Economic Research Service’s October 2026 Food Price Outlook forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 2.3 percent in 2026, with all food up 2.8 percent. The agency forecasts fresh vegetables up 5.8 percent, sugar and sweets up 6.5 percent and poultry up 1.2 percent, while egg prices are forecast to fall 29.3 percent.
Spending More, and Planning for Leftovers
Even with cuts, the bill is going up for plenty of households. Among those hosting or attending, 47 percent expect to spend more on Thanksgiving, with 39 percent citing prices and 8 percent saying they are buying or hosting more, NIQ found. Twenty-four percent expect to spend the same, and 19 percent expect to spend less.
Forty-one percent of Americans plan to host this year. People who will both host and attend gatherings lean hardest on the grocery store’s prepared foods: 73.3 percent of that group are likely to buy them, compared with 27.7 percent of host-only consumers and 28.1 percent of attend-only consumers. Costagli said the appeal is skipping the most time-intensive parts of holiday entertaining rather than avoiding cooking altogether.
Leftovers remain part of the plan. NIQ found that 38 percent overcook to avoid running out and 36 percent do it to have leftovers, while just 2 percent would prefer none. Forty-four percent plan to make leftover sandwiches or wraps, 40 percent will send food home with guests and 26 percent will freeze or vacuum-seal leftovers, figures also reported by FoodNavigator. More than one in four hosts say they waste more food at Thanksgiving than at a typical meal, according to NIQ, which is one more reason the freezer plan matters.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Ruth Hartnup from Vancouver, Canada – CC BY 2.0/Wikimedia Commons
