The Shelby Report, a grocery industry publication, reported on October 21, 2026 that food prices are changing how 77 percent of U.S. Thanksgiving hosts and guests build their shopping lists. The data came from NielsenIQ, known as NIQ, in its Thanksgiving ’26 survey. The same survey found that most of those shoppers still plan an abundant holiday meal.
In other words, the list is changing while the table is not. Chris Costagli, NIQ’s vice president of thought leadership and food and beverage insights lead, put it this way: “Consumers want the same Thanksgiving they’ve always wanted: a table full of favorite foods, enough leftovers for the next day and a memorable experience with family and friends. The difference is that they’re working harder to make that happen.”
The 77 Percent and the Survey Behind It
NIQ’s survey covered 2,017 respondents, according to the Shelby Report’s account. It did not state the fieldwork dates. Costagli said NIQ saw the beginnings of the shift in 2025, but that in 2026 it looks “less like a reaction to inflation and more like a new holiday shopping playbook.”
The survey also counted who is hosting: 41 percent of Americans plan to host Thanksgiving this year, the report said. Hosts are more likely to come from higher-income households and larger families, and NIQ says they sit at the center of more purchase decisions than the average shopper.
How Hosts and Guests Say They Are Adjusting
Because of food and beverage prices, 36 percent of people hosting or attending a Thanksgiving meal will search for deals, 32 percent will use what they have on hand and 31 percent will plan their menus with care. Another 21 percent will cut non-essentials or sides, and 21 percent will use lower-cost brands or cuts. Fifteen percent will buy smaller quantities, 14 percent will purchase larger or bulk sizes and 12 percent will serve smaller portions. Frenz Hub has a post titled How to Freeze Fresh Green Beans to Enjoy All Year.
Some of those moves point in opposite directions, buying less and buying bulk among them, which fits the survey’s picture of households choosing their own approach. Frenz Hub has a post on best practices for seasonal storage.
Store Brands Move Up the List
Forty-six percent of respondents plan to buy more store brands than they did last year, 46 percent expect no change and 8 percent plan to buy fewer, according to the report. Costagli said side dishes, baking ingredients, canned vegetables, cranberry sauce, dairy and pantry staples are natural opportunities for private label because they are often bought in larger quantities and play a supporting role in the meal.
“Consumers didn’t suddenly discover store brands this Thanksgiving,” he said, adding that if a store brand delivers the quality, taste and value consumers want, many will keep buying it after the holiday season. CraftingYourHome.com has a list of 9 pies that show up on Thanksgiving tables across America.
Where the Cuts Would Come
Among those hosting or attending, 47 percent expect to spend more on Thanksgiving. Of those, 39 percent cite prices and 8 percent say they are buying or hosting more. Twenty-four percent expect to spend the same, while 19 percent expect to purchase less. CraftingYourHome.com has a post titled 8 Things Never to Do Before Leaving Home for Thanksgiving Travel.
Seventy-five percent already know where they would cut spending if needed. Decorations, alcohol and specialty foods face greater scrutiny, while fresh produce, beverages and the main protein remain more protected, NIQ said. Frenz Hub’s Free Up the Oven This Thanksgiving is a Thanksgiving kitchen post.
Leftovers Are Part of the Plan
Thanksgiving remains an exception where excess is part of the experience, NIQ said. Among those hosting or attending, 38 percent overcook to avoid running out and 36 percent do it to have leftovers, while just 2 percent would prefer no leftovers. More than one in four hosts say they waste more food at Thanksgiving than at a typical meal.
Many have plans for the extra: 44 percent plan leftover sandwiches or wraps, 40 percent will send food home with guests, 34 percent plan a next-day meal and 26 percent will freeze or vacuum-seal leftovers.
The Price Backdrop
NIQ said that in the 52 weeks ending Sept. 5, prices for cranberry sauce, which Wikipedia calls a traditional accompaniment to turkey at Thanksgiving dinners in the U.S. and Canada, rose 15 percent and turkey breast rose 12 percent compared with a year earlier. Pie crust was down 2 percent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, in its Food Price Outlook, says food prices in September 2026 were 2.5 percent higher than in September 2025, with grocery-store food up 1.8 percent.
A separate FoodNavigator report on NIQ’s 2026 Global Consumer Outlook, dated October 7, found that 34 percent of consumers cited food prices as their top concern going into 2027. The study’s wording for the year: “Consumers are no longer hunting for a deal, they’re assembling one.” NIQ listed trading down on brands at 39 percent and shopping more often at discount stores at 34 percent among the strategies.
A Light Reality Check
The 77 percent describes people adjusting how they build lists, not how much they spend or whether they cook less. It comes from one survey of 2,017 respondents, reported by a trade publication, without stated fieldwork dates. Thanksgiving falls on November 26, 2026, and Wikipedia dates the modern national holiday to 1863. NIQ’s own takeaway is that the meal itself is staying largely intact: the abundant table, the leftovers and the traditions, with the shopping list doing the adjusting.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Bill Branson – Public domain/Wikimedia Commons
