A grocery list on a phone gets shorter the week the receipt gets longer. Somewhere between the first aisle and the register, the name-brand cereal goes back on the shelf and the store-label box goes in the cart.
That swap is the most common move in a new Bain & Company survey. Among Americans who said they were reducing spending, 56% were switching to lower-priced brands, 49% were buying fewer items and 44% were leaning more on coupons and promotions, Fresh Fruit Portal reported on July 23, 2026. Bain’s pulse survey also found that 80% of Americans were trying to cut spending and 28% were actively cutting grocery purchases.
A 1.8% Drop in Unit Sales Sets the Backdrop
The survey came with an analysis of NielsenIQ sales data. Fresh Fruit Portal said unit sales fell 1.8% from a year earlier, with total volumes down about 2%. The slowdown began in mid-2025, when retailers first saw steady negative unit growth, and the decline has quickened since February.
Bain pointed to several causes at once, not one event. The report cited a 20% jump in gas prices in March, cumulative grocery inflation of 33% since 2019, broader inflation across spending categories and slower growth in disposable income.
“The data is unambiguous,” said Kurt Grichel, who leads Bain‘s Americas retail practice and co-wrote the report, describing a “genuine volume contraction” in grocery. Shoppers who once filled a cart weekly are now trimming it, and the survey shows how. Grichel added that retailers responding with precision on assortment, promotion and private label will be best placed to capture the trips that are still up for grabs.
How the 56%, 49% and 44% Stack Up
Switching brands led the list of tactics, ahead of buying fewer items and using more coupons. A cheaper brand keeps the meal on the table, while fewer items means a smaller meal. Stores selling their own labels sit at the center of the first choice, and the store-brand model is simple: a retailer owns the brand, a third party makes the product, and the price usually lands below the national name.
Familiar examples include Kroger’s Simple Truth, Aldi’s Specially Selected, Costco’s Kirkland Signature, Walmart’s Great Value and Target’s Market Pantry, according to the same Wikipedia entry. Some store-brand coffee even comes from a national roaster; Kirkland bags carry the line “Custom roasted by Starbucks.”
Shoppers who track prices closely already know the pattern, and savings advice has long pointed the same way, as in a set of frugal living tips for a tiny budget. The same instinct appears in lists of everyday products Americans overpay for without noticing, where the brand name often accounts for much of the price.
Where Price-Focused Shoppers Are Heading
Bain said discounters, dollar stores, mass retailers and warehouse clubs continue to attract shoppers looking for lower prices. A warehouse club charges a membership fee and uses a no-frills format to keep prices low; Costco, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club are the best-known examples.
The report added a caution for those stores too. Declining unit sales affect those formats as well, which means even the places known for low prices are selling fewer items. As volumes shrink, Bain said, retailers are competing for share rather than riding a growing category.
Stores that watch shoppers closely have noticed the shift, as in a former Walmart worker’s account of store detectives who blend in with early-morning shoppers. Cutting back at the store can also mean cooking more at home with equipment already in the kitchen, a theme in a comparison of air fryers and toaster ovens that free up the main oven.
For households trying the club route, the habits described in a list of traits shared by people who never shop without a written list come in handy, since a printed list and a membership card both keep the cart honest.
Smaller Online Baskets and a Price Forecast
Online shopping is a second factor in lower volumes, according to Bain’s analysis. Bain noted that online shoppers typically buy smaller baskets, so growth in online ordering can pull the average number of items per trip down even when the number of trips holds steady.
The Census Bureau estimated e-commerce at 17.1% of total retail sales, seasonally adjusted, in the second quarter of 2026, in a release dated Aug. 18, 2026. That figure covers all retail, not only groceries, but it shows how large the online channel has become.
The USDA Economic Research Service, in a Food Price Outlook updated Oct. 23, 2026, forecasts grocery prices up 2.3% in 2026, with a range of 1.9% to 2.7%. For 2027 it forecasts a 1.0% rise, with a far wider range, from a 5.2% drop to a 7.5% rise.
Those forecasts describe prices, not shopper behavior, and the Bain survey describes behavior. Taken together, they suggest households are adjusting to grocery prices that are 33% higher than in 2019.
Reading the Survey Without Overreading It
The numbers come from different bases. The 56% describes consumers who said they were reducing spending, and 28% were actively cutting grocery purchases. The survey, as summarized, does not list a sample size or margin of error, so the figures are best read as a snapshot of the mood Bain recorded in its pulse survey.
Still, the direction matches the sales data. Fewer items are leaving stores, and shoppers who keep buying are reaching for lower prices, for store labels and for coupons. The next time a cart looks lighter than it did a year ago, Bain’s survey suggests it is not an accident.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Tessa Bury – CC BY 4.0/Wikimedia Commons
