Grocery-store prices slipped 0.1% in September from the month before, while restaurant menus kept climbing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the full year, food eaten away from home rose 3.5%, nearly double the 1.8% rise at the supermarket.
The numbers come from the September consumer price index, released on October 14, 2026. They offer a useful snapshot for households planning holiday menus and deciding between cooking at home and booking a table.
What the September report shows
The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures what households pay for food in two buckets. “Food at home” covers groceries. “Food away from home” covers restaurants, cafeterias and other places that serve prepared meals.
Both figures come from prices collected at stores and restaurants around the country each month. The seasonally adjusted number smooths out predictable swings, such as the surge in produce costs that often comes with certain seasons, so that analysts can compare one month with the next. The unadjusted number is what households actually paid, and it is the one used for the 12-month comparison.
For September, food at home fell 0.1% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Food away from home rose 0.2% over the same stretch. Across the 12 months ending in September, groceries were up 1.8% and restaurant food was up 3.5%.
That gap matters for anyone tracking a household budget. Frugal cooks have long argued that eating in is the cheaper habit, and a set of frugal living tips makes the same case. The latest index shows the spread between the two is still wide.
Savings do not have to come from one category alone. A rundown of things that are actually getting cheaper shows how shoppers can shift spending toward the items that are cooling off, while wallet-friendly life hacks cover small habits that add up over a year of grocery runs.
Where grocery prices are falling
Eggs are the standout. The index shows egg prices down 20.6% over 12 months, a swing that follows a bird flu shortage. Good Morning America reported that egg supply has recovered, and that butter is down 10.3% over the year.
Milk, cheese and ice cream are each down more than 2% from a year ago, based on the same coverage. Bacon is down 3.3%. For bakers, that combination of cheaper eggs, butter and dairy takes some pressure off holiday pies and cookies, and hosts can avoid costly Thanksgiving hosting mistakes such as cooking an unfamiliar recipe. A reader still stocking the kitchen for the season can find a look at the handwritten grocery list habit a handy nudge toward planning ahead.
The Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service goes further in its forecasts. In its Food Price Outlook, updated October 23, 2026, the agency projects egg prices will fall 29.3% across 2026 as a whole. The same agency keeps a poultry and eggs overview that explains the supply side behind those egg numbers.
Where prices keep rising
Not every aisle is getting cheaper. Coffee is up 7.1% over 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and beef and veal are up 3.5%. Good Morning America’s roundup also flagged apples, up 7.5%, tomatoes, up 6.8%, and seafood, up more than 6%.
Beef is the category to watch for anyone planning a roast. The Economic Research Service forecasts beef and veal prices to rise 8.7% for 2026 overall, well above the 12-month change measured so far. Its cattle and beef overview tracks the herd and market trends that sit behind that story.
Meat overall is up 1.3% over the year, though it dipped 0.9% in September alone. Month-to-month numbers can be bumpy, which is one reason economists focus on the 12-month view when they describe food inflation.
Why restaurant menus keep rising
Dining out remains a habit for many Americans, so even small increases add up across a month of lunches, weekend dinners and takeout orders.
Restaurant prices move more slowly and rarely drop. Labor, rent and insurance make up a large share of a restaurant’s costs, and those do not swing with a single month of egg or dairy prices. That helps explain why the 3.5% yearly rise at restaurants has stayed steady while grocery inflation bounces around.
The department expects the pattern to hold. Its outlook puts food-away-from-home prices up 3.5% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, with a narrow forecast range for this year. Menu pricing is also a sore point for owners. A James Beard Foundation report warned that raising prices by more than 10% may backfire on independent restaurants.
Grocery forecasts are far gentler. The Economic Research Service sees food-at-home prices up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, though the range for next year is wide, from a 5.2% decline to a 7.5% increase.
What it means before the holidays
With Thanksgiving two weeks away, the flat grocery reading is welcome news for hosts. The overall food-at-home index is nearly unchanged on the month, and several staples of the holiday table, including eggs, butter and dairy, cost less than they did a year ago.
The picture is less cheerful for coffee drinkers and for anyone planning a beef-centered meal. Shoppers who want to hold the line can compare store prices, lean on sales and plan menus around what is cheap. Wikipedia’s food prices entry explains how the measures work.
The next consumer price index report will show whether the September dip was a blip or the start of a trend. For now, the data says the checkout line is calmer than the dinner bill.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Alabama Extension – CC0/Wikimedia Commons
