More than half of holiday shoppers say the economy will shape what they spend this season. The National Retail Federation reports that 56 percent of respondents in its annual holiday survey said economic conditions will affect their spending plans.
The survey of 8,094 adult consumers also shows how shoppers plan to cope, with more sale hunting, more online price comparison and more coupons.
The 56 Percent and How They Plan to Adapt
According to the NRF press release, 56 percent of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their holiday spending plans. Among those shoppers, 43 percent plan to shop sales more often, 31 percent will comparison shop online more often and 29 percent will use coupons more often.
The survey was conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics for the NRF from October 1 to 7, 2026. It reached 8,094 adult consumers and has a margin of error of 1.1 percentage points.
The NRF also reports that 91 percent of respondents plan to celebrate the winter holidays, including Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa. NRF’s Allison Zeller described the season as a balance of “value with preserving traditions that make the holiday season special.”
When and Where Shoppers Plan to Buy
Timing is shifting only slightly. The release says 43 percent plan to begin shopping before November, compared with 42 percent last year. Among those early starters, 50 percent want to spread out their budgets and 37 percent say prices and promotions are too good to pass up.
Shoppers who wait have their own reasons. Of those waiting until November, 46 percent say they will do so to find the best prices and promotions. Overall, 64 percent are likely to do most of their shopping over Thanksgiving weekend, up from 63 percent last year.
The calendar matters here. According to Wikipedia’s entry on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving falls on November 27 this year, and it is widely seen as the unofficial start of the Christmas shopping season. The entry notes that President Franklin D. Roosevelt moved Thanksgiving to the fourth Thursday in November in 1939 to lengthen the holiday shopping season.
Shoppers who want more ways to trim spending can browse Frenzhub’s clever frugal living tips and its guide on how to save money fast. A look at what finishing holiday shopping before Thanksgiving reveals offers a lighter take on early planners, and Frenzhub’s list of outrageously expensive products Americans are overpaying for suits price-conscious readers.
Where the Money Goes: Stores, Sites and Gift Cards
The NRF survey lists where shoppers expect to buy. Online leads at 53 percent, followed by grocery stores at 43 percent, discount stores at 43 percent and department stores at 42 percent.
On wish lists, gift cards top the list at 47 percent, followed by clothing at 44 percent, books and other media at 25 percent, and personal care or beauty items at 24 percent. Readers weighing gift cards can look at a rundown of gift card mistakes to avoid this holiday season.
The release also notes that NRF forecasts November and December holiday spending to grow 4.2 percent over 2025, totaling $1.013 trillion. That forecast comes from a separate NRF release, and the survey figures describe plans, not final totals.
The Tools Behind the Savings Plans
Coupons have a long history. Wikipedia’s coupon entry calls an 1888 Coca-Cola coupon for a free glass the earliest documented one, and says a 1982 New York Times report found about four in five families used coupons, though only about 4 percent of coupons received were redeemed.
The entry describes two main kinds of grocery coupons. Store coupons are issued by the retailer, while manufacturer coupons can be used at any accepting store that carries the product. Couponing moved online in the mid-1990s, and smartphone coupons and apps have increasingly replaced loyalty cards.
Online comparison shopping has its own milestones. Wikipedia’s page on Cyber Monday says an NRF press release dated November 28, 2005, introduced the term, and that Cyber Monday 2020 became the biggest online shopping day in American history, with $10.7 billion in online spending. This year it falls on November 30.
The NRF and Its Annual Read on Shoppers
The survey is part of an annual series. Prosper Insights & Analytics, which fielded it, is the research firm NRF uses, and Phil Rist of Prosper said consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them.
Wikipedia’s entry on the National Retail Federation says the group was founded in 1911 as the National Retail Dry Goods Association, was renamed in 1958 and merged with the American Retail Federation in 1990. It describes NRF as the world’s largest retail trade association, with members that include department, specialty, discount, catalog, internet and independent retailers, plus chain restaurants and grocery stores.
The entry adds that NRF issues a forecast for each winter holiday season, and says holiday sales for November and December 2024 grew 4 percent to a record $994.1 billion. Its headquarters are in Washington, D.C.
Because grocery stores are among the places 43 percent of respondents plan to shop, the survey is also a clue to how holiday food budgets may be handled. The release does not give food or gift budget figures, so those details are not part of this survey result.
For households, the takeaway is practical. More than half of shoppers say the economy matters, and many plan to respond with sales, coupons and online price checks. Because the survey measures plans, actual spending may differ as prices and promotions arrive through the season.
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Provided by Ponyride – CC BY-SA 4.0/Wikimedia Commons
